Brasília, July 15 – July 15 marks the final deadline set by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) for deciding whether to impose an additional 25% tariff on certain Brazilian goods. As of the eve of the deadline, the Brazilian government had not received any clear signal from Washington. Analysts view the tariff threat as part of Washington’s strategy to “reshuffle” the Western Hemisphere, aiming to bring Brazil onto a new U.S. policy track for Latin America.

25% tariff threat looms

The tariff threat stems from a Section 301 investigation initiated by the USTR against Brazil. The U.S. claims that Brazil engages in “unfair trade practices” concerning the Pix electronic payment system, ethanol tariffs, and illegal deforestation. If imposed, the additional 25% duty would affect a substantial portion of Brazilian exports to the United States.

Negotiations at an impasse

Despite ongoing diplomatic engagement, Brazil and the U.S. have failed to break the deadlock. Obstacles include Brazil’s refusal to concede on the Pix system and Washington’s unwillingness to accept Brazil’s proposed reduction of ethanol tariffs. President Lula da Silva’s administration assessed that reaching a deal before the deadline was “almost impossible.”

On July 15, the Brazilian government issued a statement reiterating that “any imposition of additional tariffs is unfair and not a path to a bilateral agreement.”

Political motives overshadow economic considerations

Paulo Borba Casella, professor of international law at the University of São Paulo, told Agencia Brasil that the U.S. “makes no secret” of the political motivations behind the measure, making agreement even harder. He recalled that Trump once called Brazil an “unpleasant country” and described the tariff threat as a form of “interference in internal affairs.”

Alexandre Pires, professor of international relations at IBMEC‑SP, analysed that the Trump administration is “hardening” its stance against countries that do not align with Washington’s policies, and Brazil is a primary target. “The White House seeks to realign the Western Hemisphere with the United States and distance it from China’s economic and technological influence,” Pires noted, “and Brazil, over the past two decades, has strengthened its ties with China in the face of an increasingly closed traditional partner.”

Brazil prepares countermeasures

It is reported that the Brazilian government is already discussing response options should the tariffs be confirmed. Analysts warn that a 25% duty would severely hit Brazilian small‑ and medium‑sized exporters and could ripple through the stock market, exchange rate, and interest rates. (End)