Industry association warns extreme heat and erratic rainfall threaten production, though growers are better prepared than in past events

SÃO PAULO — July 13, 2026. The Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic) has warned that the intense heat and erratic rainfall brought by the El Niño phenomenon could slash Brazil’s record expected coffee harvest by as much as one-fifth. Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) had previously forecast total production of 66.7 million bags (each weighing 60 kg) of arabica and robusta coffee for this year. Abic Executive Director Celírio Inácio da Silva said: “We are now talking about crop losses of 15% to 20%. In a normal year this might be within expectations, but under the current scenario, it is very bad news.”

Despite the gloomy outlook, coffee growers are better prepared than during previous El Niño events, thanks to technological advances that have produced more climate-resilient crops. Da Silva noted: “We have made significant progress and can now plant and harvest more efficiently.” In recent years, growers have rapidly expanded irrigation systems to bolster resilience against climate risks, investing heavily in such technologies to reduce reliance on increasingly erratic rainfall. Even so, El Niño is still expected to disrupt the biological cycle of the crop, particularly during the flowering period in the second half of 2026. Experts say extreme heat and irregular rainfall could lead to uneven or failed flowering. Wellis Caixeta, coffee procurement manager at the Expocacer cooperative in Minas Gerais state, said: “Uneven maturation creates quality problems and makes harvesting more difficult.”

The 2023–2024 El Niño, combined with heatwaves and irregular rainfall, had already reduced Brazil’s 2024 coffee harvest from the government’s initial forecast of 58.8 million bags to 54.2 million bags. Arabica beans, despite being in a positive biennial cycle, saw production increase by only 0.2%, while conilon productivity fell by 5.9%. Luís Carlos Bastianello, president of Cooabriel, Brazil’s largest conilon coffee cooperative, said that Espírito Santo state – the country’s largest producer of conilon – is also facing erratic weather this year, with longer intervals between rains and more concentrated downpours. Growers in the state fear El Niño could extend dry spells and extreme heat into January 2027, disrupting bean filling. Bastianello pointed out: “High temperatures are the biggest risk for severe crop losses. Conilon metabolism slows above 27°C and stops entirely at 35°C. Damage from heat is often greater than from water shortage itself.” Brazil’s Central Bank Governor Gabriel Galípolo has identified El Niño as one of the important risk factors affecting future inflation trends.

Project valued at US$20 million faces strong opposition from social organizations on environmental and legal grounds

The government of Uruguay’s eastern Treinta y Tres Province has recently launched a controversial port construction project—the Cebollatí Logistics Hub (Nodo Logístico Cebollatí, NLC). The project aims to leverage the waterways of Laguna Merín to open up a new logistics corridor and reduce agricultural export costs for the region. However, even before construction has begun, it has drawn strong opposition from multiple social organizations over environmental, legal, and social concerns.

Project Background: Leveraging the Laguna Merín Waterway to Open an Eastern Export Corridor

Uruguayan producers have long called for the country to make full use of the natural connection between Laguna Merín and Brazil’s Laguna de los Patos via the Canal San Gonzalo, enabling exports through Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil.This vision made substantial progress in January 2023, when then-President Luis Lacalle Pou met with Brazilian President Lula in Montevideo. Lula committed to advancing the dredging of the waterway, while Uruguay undertook to build a new bridge over the Río Yaguarón.However, severe flooding in southern Brazil in early 2024 delayed the project, and the dredging tender was only recently completed.

Against this backdrop, the Treinta y Tres provincial government initiated a land-use change procedure, planning to reclassify approximately 40 hectares of land on the banks of the Cebollatí River—about 8 kilometers from the mouth of Laguna Merín, near La Charqueada—from agricultural to rural industrial use. This site is the proposed location for the Cebollatí Logistics Hub.

Project Plan: Multimodal Hub with Total Investment Reaching US$50 Million

According to project technical documents, the Cebollatí Logistics Hub plans to build a multipurpose inland river port terminal and a supporting logistics industrial park. The core objective is to combine road and water transport for bulk and container cargo, making it a key node on the Laguna Merín waterway.

Initial project investment is US$20 million, with total investment reaching US$50 million upon completion of subsequent phases. The port will feature a reinforced concrete berth dock with an initial length of 60 meters, expandable in stages, dedicated to inland barge operations. Onshore facilities will include container yards (including reefer containers), grain silos with a capacity of 8,000 cubic meters, a 7,110-square-meter timber yard, open and enclosed warehouses, administrative offices, customs facilities, and weighbridges.

The project is expected to create approximately 60 direct jobs and 180 indirect jobs. The logistics hub will primarily serve the transport of rice, grains, forest products, and agricultural, industrial, and mineral materials from the region.

Supporters: Lowering Logistics Costs and Revitalizing the Eastern Economy

Supporters argue that the project will open up a new logistics corridor for Uruguay’s northeastern region, which has long struggled to attract industrial and agricultural investment due to high transport costs. The inland waterway connection will allow Uruguayan products to be exported through Brazil’s Rio Grande and Porto Alegre, enhancing the competitiveness of multiple production sectors. The project will also promote the intensification of agricultural and forestry development across the region.

Opponents: Environmental, Legal, and Social Triple Obstacles

However, the project faces strong opposition from social organizations. On the environmental front, the opposition group “Hue Miri” Assembly released a document stating that the Cebollatí River and Laguna Merín can no longer bear additional load, and that dredging will stir up pollutants from years of accumulated fertilizers and agrochemicals.The project is also located within a UNESCO-recognized biosphere reserve and adjacent to the “Isla del Padre” nature reserve in Rocha province, making it ecologically highly sensitive.

On the legal front, opponents point out that under Decree No. 128/2026, the project site falls within “wetlands of significant environmental importance,” where changes in land use are prohibited.

On the social impact front, the project will directly affect the livelihoods of approximately 100 families (about 400 people) who rely on artisanal fishing. In addition, the project will negatively impact community ecotourism and the recreational spaces of local residents. Opponents also fear that archaeological and historical heritage—including indigenous mounds (Cerritos de Indios), burial sites, places of ancestral memory, and underwater heritage—will be destroyed.

Project Response: Acknowledging Environmental Impact, Committing to Mitigation Measures

In its statements, the project proponent acknowledged that the logistics hub will generate a series of significant environmental impacts requiring mitigation measures and ongoing monitoring.To address the region’s frequent flooding, the project plans extensive earthworks and the construction of embankments to raise the site elevation.At the same time, the project will attract a large volume of heavy truck traffic, increasing accident risks on national and rural roads, as well as combustion emissions and noise and vibration pollution. The proponent also acknowledged that the surrounding environment will shift from a rural agricultural and pastoral landscape to one oriented toward logistics, port, and industrial uses, potentially introducing silos, docks, ships, and other visual elements. However, the proponent believes this could create new visual interest and will not seriously harm traditional tourism activities on nearby Isla del Padre.

Currently, the Treinta y Tres provincial government is advancing the land-use change procedure, and the project proponent has submitted a port construction permit application to the Ministry of Transport and Public Works (MTOP). How to balance economic development against environmental protection will be key to whether the project can ultimately proceed.

As a heavyweight in the global business world, Mexican telecom magnate Carlos Slim Helú and his family continued to hold the title of Latin America’s richest person in 2026.

Staggering Wealth: According to the Forbes 2026 Billionaires List, Slim’s net worth reached $125 billion**. In real-time data, this figure even peaked at **$126.1 billion.

Global Ranking: This level of wealth firmly places him among the top 20 richest people in the world in 2026.

Source of Wealth: His fortune primarily stems from his control over telecom giants América Móvil and Telmex, while he also has extensive holdings in Mexico’s infrastructure, consumer goods, mining, and real estate sectors.

Economic Impact: Reports indicate that his personal net worth is equivalent to approximately 6.7% of Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP), underscoring his immense influence on the country’s economy.