In its latest Economic Outlook report released on July 10, Citi Bank lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Colombia from 2.7% to 2.5%. At the same time, Citi expects Colombia’s inflation rate to reach 6.2% in 2026, with the policy interest rate rising to 12.25% – both the second‑highest levels in Latin America.

In the regional growth landscape, Colombia’s 2.5% forecast places it behind the Dominican Republic (4.1%), Panama (4.1%), Costa Rica (3.5%), Peru (2.9%), and Argentina (2.9%). Brazil is expected to grow 1.8%, while Mexico is seen improving from 1.1% to 2%.

On inflation, Citi projects that Colombia’s inflation will rise from 5.1% in 2025 to 6.2% in 2026, before easing to 4.2% in 2027. This implies that the process of returning inflation to the central bank’s target range will be longer than previously anticipated. Citi expects the Colombian central bank’s policy rate to reach 12.25% by the end of 2026 – with some reports noting a range of 12.25% to 12.50%. For the exchange rate, Citi forecasts the dollar‑peso rate at around 3,527 by year‑end.

Ernesto Revilla, Citi’s Chief Economist for Latin America, noted that the region as a whole has shown considerable resilience. “Investors see our region as a good place with great potential – provided that economic policies become more investment‑friendly,” Revilla said. Citi also lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 from 2.9% to 2.5% but believes risks of a negative scenario have decreased as US‑Iran tensions have eased.

Analysts point out that Colombia’s economy faces multiple pressures – high inflation, elevated interest rates, and a slowing global economy – which are dampening its growth momentum. Citi also noted that if the new government can push forward fiscal and regulatory reforms to boost investment confidence, there is upside room for growth. This assessment leaves room for speculation about Colombia’s future economic policy direction.