Industry association warns extreme heat and erratic rainfall threaten production, though growers are better prepared than in past events
SÃO PAULO — July 13, 2026. The Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic) has warned that the intense heat and erratic rainfall brought by the El Niño phenomenon could slash Brazil’s record expected coffee harvest by as much as one-fifth. Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) had previously forecast total production of 66.7 million bags (each weighing 60 kg) of arabica and robusta coffee for this year. Abic Executive Director Celírio Inácio da Silva said: “We are now talking about crop losses of 15% to 20%. In a normal year this might be within expectations, but under the current scenario, it is very bad news.”
Despite the gloomy outlook, coffee growers are better prepared than during previous El Niño events, thanks to technological advances that have produced more climate-resilient crops. Da Silva noted: “We have made significant progress and can now plant and harvest more efficiently.” In recent years, growers have rapidly expanded irrigation systems to bolster resilience against climate risks, investing heavily in such technologies to reduce reliance on increasingly erratic rainfall. Even so, El Niño is still expected to disrupt the biological cycle of the crop, particularly during the flowering period in the second half of 2026. Experts say extreme heat and irregular rainfall could lead to uneven or failed flowering. Wellis Caixeta, coffee procurement manager at the Expocacer cooperative in Minas Gerais state, said: “Uneven maturation creates quality problems and makes harvesting more difficult.”
The 2023–2024 El Niño, combined with heatwaves and irregular rainfall, had already reduced Brazil’s 2024 coffee harvest from the government’s initial forecast of 58.8 million bags to 54.2 million bags. Arabica beans, despite being in a positive biennial cycle, saw production increase by only 0.2%, while conilon productivity fell by 5.9%. Luís Carlos Bastianello, president of Cooabriel, Brazil’s largest conilon coffee cooperative, said that Espírito Santo state – the country’s largest producer of conilon – is also facing erratic weather this year, with longer intervals between rains and more concentrated downpours. Growers in the state fear El Niño could extend dry spells and extreme heat into January 2027, disrupting bean filling. Bastianello pointed out: “High temperatures are the biggest risk for severe crop losses. Conilon metabolism slows above 27°C and stops entirely at 35°C. Damage from heat is often greater than from water shortage itself.” Brazil’s Central Bank Governor Gabriel Galípolo has identified El Niño as one of the important risk factors affecting future inflation trends.