An El Niño event that could rank among the strongest in 150 years is delivering a one-two punch to copper mining regions in South America and Africa—which together account for roughly half of global copper production—through both excessive rainfall and severe drought. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) estimates a 97% probability that this El Niño will persist until early spring 2027, with an 81% chance of reaching extremely strong levels between October and December 2026.

Two Major Production Regions, Two Distinct Plights

By altering global precipitation patterns, El Niño presents copper miners in different regions with starkly different yet equally severe challenges.

• South America – “Flooded”: In Chile and Peru, the primary threat comes from torrential rain and flooding. Heavy downpours directly disrupt mining operations, trigger mudslides that cut off transport arteries, and rough seas force the temporary closure of key export ports.

• Africa – “Parched”: In the copper belts of Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the main challenge is hydroelectric power shortages caused by drought. Mines in this region rely heavily on hydropower, and the drought directly leads to insufficient electricity supply, threatening mine operations.

Impact by Production Region

Chile: Rainstorms Disrupt Logistics, Output Forecasts Revised Downward

As the world’s largest copper producer, Chile has recently been hit by unusually heavy winter rains, with some areas receiving more rainfall in a single day than their typical annual total. The disaster has caused at least 10 deaths and may result in hundreds of millions of dollars in losses.

• Mine operations disrupted: Multiple miners, including state-owned Codelco, Anglo American, and Antofagasta, have been forced to activate emergency response measures.

• Logistics and exports interrupted: Several sections of the Pan-American Highway—a critical transport “lifeline”—have been closed due to flooding and mudslides. The major copper export ports of Huasco and Coquimbo have also been temporarily closed due to rough sea conditions.

• Output forecasts revised downward: The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) had already lowered its 2026 copper production forecast for Chile to 5.3 million tons in May.

Peru: State of Emergency Declared, Logistics Risks on the Rise

On July 2, the Peruvian government declared a 60-day state of emergency across 796 districts and municipalities due to heavy rainfall and significant disaster risks brought by El Niño. To date, major copper mining operations have not been significantly affected, but logistics links—including ore transport, supply deliveries, and shipping schedules—are already facing disruption risks.

African Copper Belt: A “Survival Test” of Hydropower Dependence

In Zambia and the DRC, the power crisis triggered by drought is the core issue. Key examples include:

• Zijin Mining: Its flagship Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the DRC sources approximately half of its electricity from the DRC’s national grid, which is predominantly hydroelectric. Affected by previous seismic events and power supply issues, the company has revised its 2026 production guidance downward from approximately 600,000 tons to around 300,000 tons.

• CMOC Group: Its two major mines in the DRC—TFM and KFM—also rely primarily on hydroelectric power. However, the company has stated that it has established comprehensive contingency plans using waste heat recovery and diesel power generation reserves.

• Nationwide crisis in Zambia: As an important African copper producer, Zambia is experiencing severe nationwide power outages due to the drought triggered by El Niño.

Market Response: Tighter Supply, Amplified Price Sensitivity

Against a backdrop where the copper market has shifted from surplus to deficit, the marginal impact of climate disruptions has been significantly amplified.

• Plunge in processing fees: For the week ending July 17, the spot processing charge (TC) for imported copper concentrates widened further into negative territory, reaching -$146.15 per ton, reflecting extreme tightness in concentrate supply.

• Structural deficit: Analysts project that the global copper market could face annual shortfalls of 300,000 to 400,000 tons in both 2026 and 2027. Huatai Securities predicts that copper prices could exceed $12,000 per ton in 2026.

Miner Responses: Diesel as a Short-Term Backstop, Green Power for the Long Term

Facing climate shocks, miners are adopting strategies across two time horizons:

• Short-term contingency (diesel power generation): This is the most common backup solution. Despite its high cost, it can quickly address power interruptions. For example, JCHX Mining has pre-stocked diesel for its project in the DRC.

• Long-term planning (green power and self-built power stations): Constructing new core hydropower stations is the fundamental solution, but these are generally not expected to come online until 2028–2029. CMOC Group has planned photovoltaic projects, while Tengyuan Cobalt has planned a 100 MW hydropower station.