Brasília, July 15 – July 15 marks the final deadline set by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) for deciding whether to impose an additional 25% tariff on certain Brazilian goods. As of the eve of the deadline, the Brazilian government had not received any clear signal from Washington. Analysts view the tariff threat as part of Washington’s strategy to “reshuffle” the Western Hemisphere, aiming to bring Brazil onto a new U.S. policy track for Latin America.

25% tariff threat looms

The tariff threat stems from a Section 301 investigation initiated by the USTR against Brazil. The U.S. claims that Brazil engages in “unfair trade practices” concerning the Pix electronic payment system, ethanol tariffs, and illegal deforestation. If imposed, the additional 25% duty would affect a substantial portion of Brazilian exports to the United States.

Negotiations at an impasse

Despite ongoing diplomatic engagement, Brazil and the U.S. have failed to break the deadlock. Obstacles include Brazil’s refusal to concede on the Pix system and Washington’s unwillingness to accept Brazil’s proposed reduction of ethanol tariffs. President Lula da Silva’s administration assessed that reaching a deal before the deadline was “almost impossible.”

On July 15, the Brazilian government issued a statement reiterating that “any imposition of additional tariffs is unfair and not a path to a bilateral agreement.”

Political motives overshadow economic considerations

Paulo Borba Casella, professor of international law at the University of São Paulo, told Agencia Brasil that the U.S. “makes no secret” of the political motivations behind the measure, making agreement even harder. He recalled that Trump once called Brazil an “unpleasant country” and described the tariff threat as a form of “interference in internal affairs.”

Alexandre Pires, professor of international relations at IBMEC‑SP, analysed that the Trump administration is “hardening” its stance against countries that do not align with Washington’s policies, and Brazil is a primary target. “The White House seeks to realign the Western Hemisphere with the United States and distance it from China’s economic and technological influence,” Pires noted, “and Brazil, over the past two decades, has strengthened its ties with China in the face of an increasingly closed traditional partner.”

Brazil prepares countermeasures

It is reported that the Brazilian government is already discussing response options should the tariffs be confirmed. Analysts warn that a 25% duty would severely hit Brazilian small‑ and medium‑sized exporters and could ripple through the stock market, exchange rate, and interest rates. (End)

U.S. Dollar Euro to Brazilian Real Exchange rate

Since the start of 2026, Paraguay’s currency, the guarani, has strengthened steadily against the US dollar, making it one of the best‑performing currencies in Latin America. According to Bloomberg data, as of July 2026, the guarani had appreciated by 8.58% against the dollar, ranking third in the region, behind only the Colombian peso (+14.60%) and the Costa Rican colón (+10.17%), and ahead of the Brazilian real (+6.95%) and the Mexican peso (+2.64%).

In its latest economic outlook, Citi Bank noted that the dollar is expected to remain weak over the next 12 to 18 months, a trend that could further boost the guarani and ease imported inflation. Ernesto Revilla, Citi’s Chief Economist for Latin America, said that the current dollar weakness is favorable for the currencies of raw‑material exporters in the region, as high international commodity prices combined with a softer dollar improve the region’s terms of trade.

The guarani’s appreciation is mainly driven by strong export revenues. In June 2026, Paraguay recorded a trade surplus of US$47.09 million, with exports rising 25.1% year‑on‑year to US$1.74 billion, driven by larger shipments of soybeans, soybean oil, and other agricultural products. In addition, after Paraguay obtained an investment‑grade rating last year, foreign investor interest has continued to grow, further boosting foreign‑exchange inflows. Former Finance Minister Ferreira noted that the massive soybean harvest this year brought in substantial dollar inflows, making the guarani’s depreciation twice that of other countries.

However, a stronger currency is a double‑edged sword for Paraguay’s economy. While importers benefit, exporters are under pressure because their dollar revenues shrink when converted into local currency. Paraguay’s Exporters’ Chamber has already held meetings with the central bank to voice the industry’s concerns. Analysts point out that Paraguay’s economy is heavily dependent on agricultural exports—soybeans and beef account for more than 70% of total exports—so a sustained appreciation may erode its export competitiveness.

Looking ahead, Citi believes that the current favorable exchange‑rate environment is likely to be maintained in the short to medium term. However, the currency’s trajectory still depends on external factors such as US Federal Reserve monetary policy and the global economic situation. Balancing the inflation‑relief benefits of currency appreciation against the loss of export competitiveness will remain a key challenge for Paraguay.

Probes cover welded steel pipes, lactic acid, PET resin, and safety glass, signalling rising trade friction

BRASÍLIA — July 13, 2026. Brazil has recently launched a flurry of anti‑dumping investigations and reviews against a range of products originating from China, covering welded carbon steel pipes, lactic acid and its salts, PET resin, and safety glass for refrigeration equipment – signalling a marked rise in trade tensions between the two countries.

On July 6, 2026, Brazil’s Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) issued Circular No. 51 of 2026, initiating an anti‑dumping investigation into welded carbon steel pipes imported from China, following a petition filed by Brazilian company Confab Industrial S.A.-Tenaris. The products in question are circular‑section welded steel pipes with a yield strength below 60 ksi and nominal outside diameters ranging from 14 inches (355.6 mm) to 48 inches (1,219.2 mm). The dumping investigation period covers July 2024 to June 2025, while the injury investigation period spans July 2020 to June 2025.

Earlier, on June 29, 2026, SECEX issued Circular No. 48 of 2026, initiating an anti‑dumping investigation into lactic acid and its salts originating from China, following a petition filed by Brazilian company Corbion Produtos Renováveis Ltda. The products fall under Mercosur tariff code 2918.11.00, with the dumping investigation period set from July 2024 to June 2025. On June 17, 2026, Brazil also initiated a changed‑circumstances review of anti‑dumping duties on PET resin with an intrinsic viscosity of 0.70 to 0.88 dl/g originating from China, following applications from Alpek Polyester Pernambuco S.A. and Indorama Venture Polímeros S.A.

In addition, on June 24, 2026, the Executive Management Committee of Brazil’s Foreign Trade Chamber (GECEX) issued Resolution No. 921 of 2026, concluding a second sunset review of anti‑dumping duties on safety glass for refrigeration equipment originating from China. The ruling maintains duties of US$2.74 to US$5.45 per square metre for a period of five years. The products fall under Mercosur tariff code 7007.19.00. Analysts note that Brazil’s intensified use of trade remedies against Chinese products reflects growing pressure on its domestic industries from Chinese imports. The petitioner in the welded steel pipe case, Tenaris, is a globally leading pipe manufacturer, and its Brazilian subsidiary’s filing is considered industry‑representative. As protectionist sentiment rises among Brazilian industries, more Chinese products are expected to face trade investigations in the future.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Communications Department Director Julie Kozack announced at the regular press briefing on July 9 that IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will visit Argentina and Uruguay later this month. The Uruguayan government subsequently confirmed that Georgieva will arrive in Montevideo on Thursday, July 30.

The visit comes at the invitation of Uruguay’s Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF). According to the official schedule released by the Uruguayan Presidency, Georgieva will hold meetings with President Yamandú Orsi, Minister of Economy and Finance Gabriel Oddone, and Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) Governor Guillermo Tolosa. Tolosa also serves as Uruguay’s Governor at the IMF.

In addition to high-level government meetings, Georgieva will attend the Annual Economics Conference (Jornadas Anuales de Economía) hosted by the Central Bank of Uruguay, which will take place from July 27 to 30. Her itinerary also includes a discussion with representatives of the private sector.

Technical cooperation is a key backdrop to the visit. According to the Central Bank of Uruguay, the country is currently receiving IMF technical assistance in multiple areas, including “strengthening the fiscal framework, improving tax administration efficiency, refining monetary policy tools, and enhancing balance of payments and national accounts statistics.” The Central Bank stated that “the meetings will help deepen the dialogue between Uruguay and the IMF on the country’s economic priorities, as well as opportunities to further strengthen economic resilience, promote sustainable growth, and foster more inclusive development”.

Notably, this marks the first visit by an IMF Managing Director to Uruguay in 15 years, since the visit of then-Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn in 2011. The Orsi administration took office in March 2025, marking the return of the Frente Amplio coalition to power. In its 2025 Article IV Consultation report, the IMF noted that the new government’s agenda aims to “strike a balance between inclusive growth and macroeconomic stability, promote private investment, and strengthen social protection”.

Georgieva is a Bulgarian economist who has served as IMF Managing Director since 2019 and previously served as CEO of the World Bank. In addition to Uruguay, her Latin American tour also includes Argentina. The 2026 IMF-World Bank Group Annual Meetings will be held in Bangkok, Thailand, from October 12 to 18.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva chaired a ministerial meeting at the Planalto Palace on July 10, focusing on the national critical minerals strategy, aimed at promoting the exploration, processing, and industrialization of strategic minerals such as lithium, rare earths, nickel, and cobalt. Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, Trade and Services Geraldo Alckmin, and Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira attended the meeting.

The meeting comes as the government is pushing forward the National Policy for Critical and Strategic Minerals bill in Congress. The bill has already passed the Chamber of Deputies and is now awaiting Senate approval. However, progress has been hampered by tensions between Lula and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre.

The bill would expand government control over critical minerals, including the creation of a commission directly under the presidency to define priority projects, establish classification criteria, and veto sensitive transactions such as foreign acquisitions of mining assets. The bill also provides 5 billion reais in tax credits between 2030 and 2034 to stimulate the critical minerals supply chain.

The Brazilian government has identified priority minerals including rare earths, lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, and graphite – essential raw materials for batteries, electric vehicles, electronics, and clean energy generation technologies. Brazil holds the world’s second‑largest rare earth reserves (about 21 million tonnes), second only to China, and also controls 26% of global graphite, over 90% of niobium, 12% of nickel, and 5% of proven lithium reserves.

However, there are internal disagreements over the degree of intervention. Points of contention include the extent of state involvement, the means to stimulate local processing of minerals, and Brazil’s positioning in global supply chains. The private sector fears the bill could increase regulatory uncertainty and scare off investment. The government also acknowledges that the economic viability of different minerals varies, depending on technology, market size, international competitiveness, and their position in the value chain.

Minister Silveira recently made clear that Brazil “under no circumstances” should export unprocessed critical minerals. He stressed that the country’s mineral wealth should drive industrialization, technological innovation, and job creation, not merely raw material exports. The Lula administration has established the National Mining Policy Council to coordinate strategic policies for critical minerals. On the international front, Brazil has signed a joint declaration with Germany to promote research, technological development, and innovation cooperation in critical minerals. The EU is also in talks with Brazil to establish a strategic partnership on critical minerals.

In its latest Economic Outlook report released on July 10, Citi Bank lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Colombia from 2.7% to 2.5%. At the same time, Citi expects Colombia’s inflation rate to reach 6.2% in 2026, with the policy interest rate rising to 12.25% – both the second‑highest levels in Latin America.

In the regional growth landscape, Colombia’s 2.5% forecast places it behind the Dominican Republic (4.1%), Panama (4.1%), Costa Rica (3.5%), Peru (2.9%), and Argentina (2.9%). Brazil is expected to grow 1.8%, while Mexico is seen improving from 1.1% to 2%.

On inflation, Citi projects that Colombia’s inflation will rise from 5.1% in 2025 to 6.2% in 2026, before easing to 4.2% in 2027. This implies that the process of returning inflation to the central bank’s target range will be longer than previously anticipated. Citi expects the Colombian central bank’s policy rate to reach 12.25% by the end of 2026 – with some reports noting a range of 12.25% to 12.50%. For the exchange rate, Citi forecasts the dollar‑peso rate at around 3,527 by year‑end.

Ernesto Revilla, Citi’s Chief Economist for Latin America, noted that the region as a whole has shown considerable resilience. “Investors see our region as a good place with great potential – provided that economic policies become more investment‑friendly,” Revilla said. Citi also lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 from 2.9% to 2.5% but believes risks of a negative scenario have decreased as US‑Iran tensions have eased.

Analysts point out that Colombia’s economy faces multiple pressures – high inflation, elevated interest rates, and a slowing global economy – which are dampening its growth momentum. Citi also noted that if the new government can push forward fiscal and regulatory reforms to boost investment confidence, there is upside room for growth. This assessment leaves room for speculation about Colombia’s future economic policy direction.